On 12 March, Canada announced retaliatory tariffs on $21bn worth of US goods after Donald Trump implemented 25 per cent tariffs on steel and aluminium imports, which he threatened to increase to 50 per cent for Canada. Trump has imposed, then suspended, 25 per cent tariffs on Canadian imports twice since resuming the US presidency and repeatedly vowed to make Canada the “51st state”, a threat that many Canadians take seriously. “The Americans want our resources our water, our land, our country,” warned prime minister-designate Mark Carney after winning the Liberal Party’s leadership race on 9 March.
Daniel Béland, director of the McGill Institute for the Study of Canada, explained to the New Statesman how Trump’s escalating threats are transforming Canadian politics.
Katie Stallard: Donald Trump’s rhetoric about Canada becoming the 51st state, calling Justin Trudeau “the governor”, seemed to be somewhat of a punchline at first. When did it start to feel to you like this was becoming something more serious?
Daniel Béland: It was a gradual process. At first, all the talk about [becoming] the 51st state was perceived as a joke, but now most people think that there is something serious about this – maybe not annexation per se, but a threat to our sovereignty, and perhaps also the current borders. He has been relentless in this discussion of [Canada becoming] the 51st state. So this has become a major source of concern.
KS: Were there any clues during Donald Trump’s first term that these sorts of attacks on Canada’s economy and sovereignty were on his radar?
DB: Yes, but not as dramatically as we are seeing now. There was the renegotiation of NAFTA, the trade agreement between Canada, the US and Mexico. That was a very difficult process, but in the end, we succeeded, and Trump himself signed the new trade deal during his first term. So I would say that people are taken aback by the fact that Trump signed a trade agreement, and then a few years later, he’s saying that we need yet another trade agreement because the [one that he signed] was unfair.
This administration has been all over the place in terms of launching attacks against may of its traditional allies. There is also Mexico, Panama, Denmark, Greenland, and even the European Union in terms of tariff threats. The experience is like riding a roller coaster, but blindfolded, because Trump changes his mind regularly. He can be really nasty, but also mercurial, so you never know exactly what will happen next. Frankly, it’s dizzying and quite scary because Canada is much smaller than the United States, and we depend on the US for our trade – about three-quarters of our goods that are exported outside Canada go to the US. So it’s a very close relationship, and what we have been seeing since Trump’s return to the White House is unprecedented. We’ve never heard an American president say these things about Canada since the creation of our country in 1867.
KS: What is the nominal rationale for Donald Trump’s attacks on Canada?
DB: It is actually hard to say because it seems that the goalposts are always shifting. At first, it was all about fentanyl and border security, although we know that only a very small proportion of the fentanyl that enters the US comes from Canada. But then he has provided other rationales over time. He’s mentioned our banking system, deregulating our financial system, the trade imbalance, our low military spending and lots of other things, including making Canada the 51st state. It’s difficult for Canadian officials to know what Trump’s endgame is.
This is really a David against Goliath story. We are really small compared to the US in terms of population, the size of our economy and the size of our military. Just like the UK, we fought alongside the US during the two world wars, and in Afghanistan. But now we are being treated as though we are an adversary, and many people here are very upset about it. This is not just about the economy, it’s also about our sovereignty and our national identity.
KS: What do these tariff threats mean in real terms for the Canadian economy and the lives of Canadians?
DB: This is creating really major problems, not just for Canada, but also for the US because our economies are so integrated. The poster child of this is the car industry because parts cross the border back and forth between factories on both sides, so when you hurt us, you also hurt the American economy. Trump seems to be changing his mind regularly about this, but if 25 per cent tariffs are fully implemented for a significant period of time, this will trigger an increase in unemployment, and almost certainly a recession. Frankly, it seems that the US might already be heading towards a recession, according to some economists, and if the US enters a recession, then Canada will get our recession too, regardless of the tariffs themselves. As we say in Canada, when the US sneezes, we catch a cold, because we are so dependent on them.
KS: Trudeau vowed to implement dollar-for-dollar tariffs in response – how would that work in practice, and what are the pros and cons of that approach?
DB: The problem with this response is that it will hurt Canadians, perhaps more than Americas. It will have a negative impact on our economy as well, and on consumers here. At the same time, I think that we have to show that we are standing up to Trump. We cannot just do nothing. Trump is a bully, and he thrives on bullying people, as we saw with Volodymyr Zelensky in the Oval Office a couple of weeks ago. We see that Trump is using tariffs, not just as an economic tool, but as a political tool, as a tool of intimidation to get things he wants from different countries. So we have to respond, even if it hurts us. This might be a long fight, and I think that both the Liberals and the Conservatives are pushing for a strong form of retaliation, even if there is an economic price to pay for that.
KS: Trudeau has said that Trump’s explanations for imposing tariffs on Canada are “completely bogus” and that his real aim is cause a collapse of the Canadian economy so that it will be easier to annex Canada. How seriously should we take the idea that Trump’s real intention might be to take control of all or part of Canada?
DB: The thing with Trump is that we just don’t know what the endgame is. There has been discussion about [the idea that he wants to] redraw the Canada-US border around the Great Lakes for example. There are rumours about [the possibility of] Russia and the US collaborating economically in the Arctic, which is a major threat to us in Canada. So even if we’re not talking about an outright invasion of Canada, or even a peaceful annexation, there is certainly an attack on Canada’s sovereignty. There is a sense that Trump is after our natural resources, and I think that’s quite clear: oil and gas, but also water. We have a lot of water in Canada, and that is a strategic asset, especially in the era of advanced climate change.
Just the talk about the “51st state” itself, and calling our prime minister a “governor” – it’s all part of an attempt at bullying. And even if he’s only against our economic interests – the deregulation of our banking sector, for instance, to allow US banks to make more money in Canada – that’s already an attack on our sovereignty, and that’s very serious.
KS: How is this changing the conversation in Canada in terms of the sense of national identity and patriotism?
DB: There is a “Buy Canadian” movement on social media. As in Europe, people are basically boycotting Tesla and there are protests in front of Tesla dealerships. There is a renewed sense of patriotism and pride in being Canadian that is evident in the polling data. Even in Quebec, where I am, where pride in Canada is not normally as high as it is in other provinces, it’s still lower, but it has bounced back more dramatically than in any other province. We are seeing a surge of economic nationalism in response to what we perceive as an attack on our sovereignty and our economy, that is leading people to emphasise the differences between Canada and the US, and say that: we are not like you, we will never be part of you.
KS: What does this mean in terms of Canada’s relations with Europe? We’ve seen Trudeau travel to Kyiv and talk about the possibility of Canada being part of a “coalition of the willing” in Ukraine. Is Canada now looking east, and towards cooperation with Europe, rather than south?
DB: Absolutely. We have a trade agreement with the European Union that was signed years ago, but it hasn’t been fully ratified and implemented, so we are working on that. And relations with the UK are also important for a number of reasons. Historically, we are part of the Commonwealth, we share the same king, and we have strong economic relations. Of course, it’s not the same as Canada-US relations in terms of scale, but I think there is more work to do to diversify our economy.
Canadians are very pro-Ukraine on average, like most Europeans. What happened in the Oval Office between JD Vance, Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelensky was really a shocking moment for many Canadians. I think we will also increase our military spending to reach the Nato threshold of 2 per cent. I think there is a silver lining here in a way, in that this will force us to further diversify our economy, and to spend more rebuilding our military. We should have done that a long time ago, but Trump is forcing us to do it now.
KS: How has this changed the domestic political environment in Canada?
DB: If you look at where the Liberals stood in the polls when Justin Trudeau announced his resignation in January, they were very far behind the Conservatives, but now they are catching up. Some polls are saying that the Liberals could actually win, perhaps even with a majority government. It’s a total reversal, but I would say this is not just about the Carney effect, the most important aspect is the Trump effect.
Many Canadians are standing behind their government in fighting back against Trump, and it is the Liberals that are currently in government. Pierre Poilievre, the leader of the Conservative Party, has been a bit slow to adjust his rhetoric to the threats coming from the White House, and the Liberals have been criticising him, saying that he sounds like Trump, and therefore that he will not be able to take him on because they are quite close ideologically. Trump has become public enemy number one for many Canadians, so if we associate you with Trump, that’s not a good thing for you with most voters.
The political agenda in Canada has shifted from cost-of-living issues to how to deal with our southern neighbour, and the most important question during the federal elections will be: who can stand up to Donald Trump? Many mainstream voters, even those who are not happy with the Liberals, might vote for them again, or for the first time, because they don’t think Poilievre will be able to stand up to him.
KS: Do American allies have to prepare for an eventuality where the US doesn’t just lessen its support, but actually becomes an adversary? Do you think Canada needs to prepare for the possibility, however remote, that the US could one day attack it?
DB: I think we should be extremely afraid of the prospect of a real military alliance between Russia and the United States under Donald Trump. There is an ideological affinity between Putin and Trump, so I think the risk of a realignment between Russia and the US is a real threat. Trump is unpredictable, but the one thing that is predictable with him is that he likes Vladimir Putin very much, and that is a threat to the free world, to use an old expression from the Cold War.
This interview that has been lightly edited for length and clarity.
[See also: Mark Carney can’t save Canada]
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